Agricultural crisis (English spelling)

The phenomenon of agricultural depression is a result of the fundamental contradictions in capitalist commodity production manifesting themselves in the agricultural sector, disrupting the reproduction process through the collapse of agricultural product prices, and adjusting through such disruptions. It is called a depression due to overproduction of agricultural products. In this sense, agricultural depressions, like commercial and industrial depressions, are also a component part of general economic depressions, but the "agricultural depressions" that have become problematic historically have appeared as a component part of such general economic depressions with unique characteristics that cannot be resolved. These phenomena are called the "agricultural depressions at the end of the 19th century" or the "agricultural depressions of the 1920s and 1930s." These are said to have lasted for about 20 years, far longer than the cycle of general economic depressions. For this reason, agricultural depressions are characterized by their longevity, and because they last for several cycles of the general economic cycle, they have been considered to be completely independent of the cycle of general economic depressions. Therefore, agricultural depressions have traditionally been considered to be chronic or long-term agricultural depressions that lack periodicity.

However, since the agricultural depression is also a capitalist depression and a "violent temporary solution" of the capitalist contradictions arising from the "fundamental contradiction," if the agricultural depression lasted for 20 years, it no longer qualifies as a depression. At the very least, it must be said to be something different from a depression as a "violent temporary solution" of capitalist contradictions. As long as it is an agricultural depression as a "violent temporary solution," its long-term duration can only be within one depression cycle (based on the existence of land rent, the survival of small peasant farming, and the natural cyclical nature of agricultural production). The reason why the "agricultural depression" lasted for 20 years was because it was linked to the structural changes of world capitalism, the chronicity of the general economic depression, the long-term decline in market-adjusted agricultural product prices based on the development of agricultural productivity and the formation of a world market for agricultural products, the crisis of the land rent category, and the rapid progress of the disintegration of the peasant class. In the "Late 19th Century Agricultural Depression," cheap grains from America and other countries flowed into Europe with the development of railroads and steamships, and became the determinant of grain prices. This dealt a major blow to grain farming in Europe, especially in Britain, and forced farmers to switch to livestock farming and industrial crops, and to withdraw capital from inferior land. Landlords also fell into economic difficulties due to falling rents. This coincided with the "Great Depression," which was linked to structural changes in the world economy, such as the end of Britain's "industrial monopoly" with the rise of America and Germany, and the formation of monopoly capital. The establishment of a unified world market for agricultural products led to a long-term decline in agricultural product prices due to the decline in the very definition of value, which resulted in the "Long Agricultural Depression." However, the long-term nature of the depression in the fourth quarter of the 19th century was not unique to the agricultural sector, and a price decline based on a decline in market value itself is not a depression. This should be distinguished from the cyclical agricultural depressions that were a component part of several general overproduction crises in the 1870s to 1890s. The "agricultural depression of the 1920s-1930s" should be understood as a general term for the three cyclical agricultural depressions of 1920-1923, 1929-1933, and 1937-1939, each of which had different characteristics in terms of productive base and industrial cycle.

However, in terms of depression theory, agricultural depressions should be understood as cyclical agricultural depressions, and the problem of agricultural surpluses should not be submerged in the general cyclical depression of overproduction. This is because state monopoly capitalist agricultural surpluses no longer necessarily appear as a component part of a general economic depression, especially after the Second World War, but rather appear as structural surpluses. This is because a mechanism has been formed in which the price support system for preventing depressions secretly accumulates agricultural surpluses.

Furthermore, we should not think that the temporary elimination of agricultural surpluses has eliminated the mechanism behind them. The agricultural surpluses in the United States, which had accumulated due to the price support system, were eliminated to the extent that "planting restrictions" were completely abolished in the wake of the global "food crisis" in 1972. American agriculture entered its golden age in the 1970s, aiming to become the "bread basket of the world," and with the increase in exports, it seemed as if agricultural surpluses had become a thing of the past. U.S. wheat exports nearly doubled from 18.4 million tons in 1970 to 44.61 million tons in 1981, soybean exports also more than doubled during the same period, from 11.56 million tons to 25.27 million tons, and corn exports increased an amazing 3.6 times, from 16.44 million tons in 1970 to 59.37 million tons in 1980. However, by 1982, the agricultural surplus in the United States had become obvious to everyone, and in 1983, a large-scale acreage reduction program, Payment in Kind (CCC, the Commodity Credit Corporation, pays farmers who cooperate with the government's acreage reduction program in kind as a production adjustment incentive subsidy) was implemented under presidential authority, followed by the Food Security Act of 1985, which aimed to lower the price support rate, in an attempt to deal with the agricultural surplus. As a result, the US wheat support price was lowered, and the ending stock in 1987 reached 177 million tons, the highest since the 1960s.

Furthermore, since the 1990s, the supply and demand of food agricultural products has tightened due to the expansion of free trade zones such as the expansion of EU integration and the coming into force of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in 1994, the economic growth of emerging countries such as BRICs in the 2000s, and the conversion of agricultural products to bioethanol, etc., and prices have risen sharply, so it seemed as if the agricultural product surplus problem had been decisively resolved, but today, the financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage problem has taken on the appearance of a full-scale global economic depression with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, and there is a possibility of another agricultural depression occurring. Although agricultural products are in a position to increase production due to the price hike, the depression has increased unemployment, and demand for agricultural products has decreased due to wage cuts, etc., and in addition, the sudden drop in oil prices has made biofuel production unprofitable, which in turn could reduce demand for agricultural products and lead to an agricultural surplus.

[Tokiwa Seiji]

"Ishiwata Sadao, Theory of Agricultural Depressions (1953, Rironsha)" ▽ "Ouchi Chikara, Agricultural Depressions (1954, new edition 1982, Yuhikaku)" ▽ "Tokiwa Masashi, Studies on Agricultural Depressions (1966, Nippon Hyoronsha)" ▽ "Kurihara Hyakuju Collected Works 3: Agricultural Crises and Agricultural Depressions (1976, Azekura Shobo)" ▽ "Miyashita Masatsugu, Capitalism and Agricultural Depressions (1972, Hosei University Press)" ▽ "Special Feature: What is Happening to American Agriculture Now?" (Agriculture and Economy, July 1985, Fumin Kyokai)" ▽ "Kajii Isao and Hattori Shinji (eds.), Japan Agriculture Annual Report 54: World Grain Supply and Demand and Bioenergy (2008, Agriculture and Forestry Statistics Association)" ▽ "Kenji Ozawa, "Trends in Global Food and Grain Trade Since the 1990s" (Agricultural Research, No. 21, 2008, Agricultural Research Institute of Japan) " "Keiji Ohga, "Various Issues Concerning the Impact of Biofuels on Food and the Environment" (Agricultural Research, No. 21, 2008, Agricultural Research Institute of Japan)"

Source: Shogakukan Encyclopedia Nipponica About Encyclopedia Nipponica Information | Legend

資本主義的商品生産の基本矛盾が農業部門で発現し、農産物価格の暴落などを通じて再生産過程を攪乱(かくらん)し、また攪乱を通じて調整する現象で、農産物の過剰生産恐慌をいう。その意味で、農業恐慌もまた商工業恐慌と同様に、一般経済恐慌の一構成部分をなすが、歴史的に問題となった「農業恐慌」は、そうした一般経済恐慌の構成部分に解消しきれない特異な性格をもって現れた。「19世紀末農業恐慌」とか「1920～1930年代農業恐慌」といわれる現象である。これらは一般経済恐慌の周期よりはるかに長く、約20年間も持続したといわれている。このことから、農業恐慌といえばその長期性において特徴づけられ、一般経済循環の数周期にわたって持続しているということから、長期農業恐慌は一般経済恐慌の循環とはまったく独立しているものと考えられてきた。そこで、農業恐慌は伝統的に周期性の欠如した慢性的または長期農業恐慌とされたのである。

　だが、農業恐慌も資本主義的恐慌であり、「基本矛盾」から生ずる資本主義的諸矛盾の「暴力的な一時的解決」である限り、農業恐慌が20年間も持続するとすれば、それはもはや恐慌に値しない。少なくとも、資本主義的諸矛盾の「暴力的な一時的解決」としての恐慌とは別個のものといわなければならない。「暴力的な一時的解決」としての農業恐慌である限り、その長期性は一恐慌循環内での長期性（地代の存在、小農民経営の残存、農業生産の自然循環的性格に基づく）でしかありえない。「農業恐慌」が20年も持続したのは、世界資本主義の構造変化、一般経済恐慌の慢性化、農業生産力の展開と農産物世界市場の形成に基づく市場調整的農産物価格の長期的低落、地代範疇(はんちゅう)の危機、農民層分解の急速な進展などと結び付いていたからである。「19世紀末農業恐慌」では、鉄道や蒸気船の発達によって、アメリカなどの安い穀物がヨーロッパに流入して穀物価格の規定者になったので、ヨーロッパ、とくにイギリスの穀作が大打撃を受け、畜産、工芸作物などへの転換や劣等地からの資本引上げを余儀なくされ、地代低下によって地主も経済的困難に陥った。時あたかも、イギリスの「工業独占」がアメリカ、ドイツなどの勃興(ぼっこう)によって終わりを告げ、独占資本が形成されるといった世界経済の構造変化と結び付いた「大不況」期とかち合い、統一的な農産物世界市場の成立に伴う価値規定そのものの低下によって農産物価格の長期的低落が現れて「長期農業恐慌」となったのである。だが、19世紀第4四半期における恐慌の長期性は農業部門にのみ固有のものではなかったし、市場価値そのものの低下に基づく価格の低落は恐慌ではない。これは1870～1890年代におけるいくつかの全般的過剰生産恐慌の構成部分としての循環性農業恐慌とは区別さるべきである。「1920～1930年代農業恐慌」は、生産力基盤と産業循環の性格のそれぞれ相異なる1920～1923年、1929～1933年、1937～1939年の、それぞれの循環性農業恐慌の総称と理解さるべきである。

　しかし、恐慌論的には農業恐慌を循環性農業恐慌と把握すべきことから、農産物過剰問題を循環性の全般的過剰生産恐慌一般に埋没させてはならない。国家独占資本主義的農産物過剰は、とくに第二次世界大戦後は、もはや一般経済恐慌の一構成部分としてはかならずしも現れず、むしろ構造的過剰として現れるからである。恐慌回避のための価格支持制度が内訌(ないこう)的に農産物過剰を累積させるというメカニズムが形成されているからにほかならない。

　また、農産物過剰の一時的解消によって農産物過剰のメカニズムがなくなったかのように考えてはならない。価格支持制度によって累積されていたアメリカの農産物過剰が1972年の世界的「食糧危機」を契機に、「作付制限」を全廃するほどまでに解消し、「世界のパン籠(かご)」を目ざしてアメリカ農業は1970年代の黄金時代を迎え、輸出の増大によって農産物過剰は過去のものとなったかにみえた。アメリカの小麦輸出量は1970年の1840万トンから1981年には4461万トンと、2倍半近くに増大し、大豆も同じ期間に1156万トンから2527万トンと2倍以上に、トウモロコシは1970年の1644万トンから1980年の5937万トンへと実に3.6倍もその輸出量を増加した。しかし、1982年にはアメリカの農産物過剰はだれの目にも明らかとなり、1983年には大規模な減反計画PIK（Payment in Kind　政府の減反計画に協力する農民には生産調整奨励補助としてCCC〈商品金融公社〉から現物で支払われる）計画が大統領権限で実施され、さらに引き続き価格支持率引下げをねらいとしたFood Security Act of 1985（食糧安全保障法）によって農産物過剰に対処しようとしたのである。その結果アメリカの小麦支持価格は引き下げられ、1987年の期末在庫は1億7700万トンと1960年代以来のピークに達した。

　また、1990年代以降、EUの統合拡大や1994年のNAFTA（北米自由貿易協定）発効など自由貿易圏の拡大、2000年代に入ってのBRICs等エマージング諸国の経済成長、バイオエタノール等への転用等により食糧農産物の需給が逼迫(ひっぱく)して価格騰貴が著しくなったので、農産物過剰問題などは決定的に解消したかにみえたが、アメリカのサブプライムローン問題に端を発する金融恐慌が2008年9月15日のリーマン・ブラザーズの経営破綻(はたん)を契機に本格的な世界経済恐慌の様相を呈してきた今日、ふたたび農業恐慌が発生する可能性が出てきた。価格高騰を契機に農産物は増産体制にあるのに、恐慌によって失業者が増え、賃金カット等によって農産物への需要が減退するうえに、高騰していた石油価格の急落でバイオ燃料生産が不採算となって、この面からも農産物需要が減って農産物過剰化となりうるからである。

［常盤政治］

『石渡貞雄著『農業恐慌論』（1953・理論社）』▽『大内力著『農業恐慌』（1954・新版1982・有斐閣）』▽『常盤政治著『農業恐慌の研究』（1966・日本評論社）』▽『『栗原百寿著作集3　農業危機と農業恐慌』（1976・校倉書房）』▽『宮下柾次著『資本主義と農業恐慌』（1972・法政大学出版局）』▽『『特集　いまアメリカ農業に何が起こっているか』（『農業と経済』1985年7月号所収・富民協会）』▽『梶井功・服部信司編『日本農業年報54　世界の穀物需給とバイオエネルギー』（2008・農林統計協会）』▽『小澤健二「1990年代以降の世界の食料および穀物貿易動向」（『農業研究』第21号所収・2008・日本農業研究所）』▽『大賀圭治「バイオ燃料の食料・環境への影響に関する諸論点」（『農業研究』第21号所収・2008・日本農業研究所）』

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