Abstain - Danger

To give up and not exercise rights such as voting or participation in decisions. Elections are the main system of political participation in a democracy, expressing the will of the people. However, in American presidential elections, about half of voters abstain, and in Japan's general elections, 30-40% of voters abstain. The rate of abstention in regular elections for the House of Councillors tends to be even higher. The rate of abstention is also higher in urban areas than in rural areas. The increase in abstention is a common trend in developed countries, except for countries such as Italy, which have a compulsory voting system with penalties. This is because voters in these countries have already enjoyed many economic and social benefits from politics, and they believe that the additional benefits they can expect from voting are not worth the costs associated with voting (information gathering, time, and effort). However, when a crisis such as war or recession arrives, or when the dramatic nature of elections as events increases, abstention suddenly decreases.

By the way, political parties and candidates have a strong positive support base that votes with a high probability in every election. Surrounding them are passive supporters who vote, abstain, or switch their support to other political parties or candidates with similar political positions depending on the election situation. However, the ratio varies depending on the characteristics of the political party or candidate. In Japan, organized political parties such as the Komeito Party and the Communist Party have a relatively large number of active supporters, and the number of votes they receive is relatively stable regardless of the number of abstentions, that is, the voter turnout. Therefore, elections with low voter turnout have a lower winning line, which is actually advantageous. On the other hand, for the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party, which have a relatively large number of passive supporters, it has been said that the key to victory is to increase the dramatic nature of the election in a direction favorable to the party, increase the voter turnout, and succeed in mobilizing a large number of passive supporters. However, which political party is favored by a high or low voter turnout also depends on the political and economic situation at the time. In addition, in the United Nations and Diet committees, abstention from voting may have a special political meaning. For example, in the United Nations, a small country may abstain from voting on a resolution that is opposed by a large power in order to avoid interference from that power, or in the Diet, a committee member who is bound by party decisions may abstain as an expression of dissatisfaction with those party decisions.

[Tan Horie]

Source: Shogakukan Encyclopedia Nipponica About Encyclopedia Nipponica Information | Legend

投票、議決参加などの権利を放棄して行使しないこと。選挙は民主主義において民意を表明する政治参加の主要な制度である。しかしアメリカの大統領選挙ではおよそ半数の有権者が棄権し、わが国の総選挙でも3～4割の有権者が棄権をしている。参議院通常選挙の棄権率はさらに高い傾向がある。また農村に比べ都市のほうが棄権率は高い。棄権の増大は、イタリアのように罰則の伴う強制投票制をとる国を除いては、先進諸国共通の傾向である。これら諸国の有権者はすでに政治から経済的にも社会的にも多くの利益を享受しており、投票によって期待できる利益の新たな上乗せ分程度では、投票にかかわる費用（情報収集、時間、労力）に対して引き合わないと考えるからである。しかし戦争、不況などの危機の到来あるいは選挙のイベント（事件）としての劇的性格が高まると、棄権はにわかに減少する。

　ところで、政党や候補者には、いつの選挙でも高い確率で投票する支持度の強い積極支持層がある。さらにその周辺を、選挙状況に応じて投票したり、棄権したり、政治的立場の近い他の政党や候補者に支持を変えたりする消極支持層が取り巻いている。ただしその比率は政党や候補者の性格に応じて異なってくる。わが国の場合、公明党や共産党など組織政党には相対的に積極支持層が多く、棄権の多少つまり投票率と関係なく得票数は比較的安定している。そこで、投票率の低い選挙のほうが、当選ラインが下がり、むしろ有利になる。一方、相対的に消極支持層の多い自民党や民主党にとっては、自党に有利な方向で選挙の劇的性格が高まって投票率が上がり、消極支持層の大量動員に成功することが勝利の鍵(かぎ)となるといわれてきた。しかし、投票率の高低がいずれの政党に有利となるかは、時々の政治・経済状況によっても異なる。なお国連や国会の委員会などでは、議決に際し棄権に特別の政治的意味が込められている場合がある。すなわち、国連では小国が大国の干渉を招かないために、大国の対立する議決に棄権するとか、また国会では党議に拘束された委員が、その党議に対する不服の意思表示として棄権するといった場合がそれにあたる。

［堀江　湛］

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