Nuclear deterrence

Japanese: 核抑止 - かくよくし（英語表記）nuclear deterrence

The idea of nuclear deterrence is to communicate to potential attackers that there is the will and ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons in the event of an attack, thereby discouraging them from attacking. Nuclear deterrence is a strategic theory that promotes the development and deployment of nuclear weapons from the perspective of the possibility of deterring attacks without using the destructive power of nuclear weapons. Until recently, it was widely adopted by nuclear-weapon states as a justification for possessing nuclear weapons, but the Bush administration in the United States revised it in part as it promoted missile defense. There has been much criticism of the idea, including: (1) it is difficult to communicate the intention to deter, (2) a display of the intention to deter becomes a threat, (3) it increases the risk of accidental nuclear war, (4) it is difficult to manage a nuclear crisis, (5) attackers who do not make rational calculations of the pros and cons cannot be deterred, (6) it induces nuclear proliferation, (7) it is possible to destroy retaliatory nuclear forces with a highly accurate preemptive attack, and (8) the possession of nuclear weapons itself is unjust and illegal.

(Yoshikazu Sakamoto, Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo / Kenichi Nakamura, Professor, Hokkaido University / 2007)

Source : "Chiezo" published by Asahi Shimbun Publications Co., Ltd. About Chiezo

Japanese:

攻撃を受けた場合には核兵器による反撃を行って耐えがたい損害を及ぼす意思と能力があることを、あらかじめ潜在的攻撃者に伝達することによって、攻撃を未然に思いとどまらせようとする考え方。核抑止論とは、核兵器の破壊力を使用することなく相手の攻撃を未然に思いとどまらせることが可能であり、そのような観点から核兵器の開発と配備を進めるという戦略論。近年まで核保有を正当化する考え方として核保有国などで広く採用されているが、米ブッシュ政権はミサイル防衛を進めて一部修正した。(1)抑止の意思の伝達が困難、(2)抑止の意思表示が威嚇となる、(3)偶発核戦争の危険が高まる、(4)核危機の管理は困難、(5)合理的な得失計算をしない攻撃者は抑止不能、(6)核拡散を誘発する、(7)精度の高い先制攻撃により報復用の核戦力を破壊できる可能性がある、(8)核兵器の保有自体が不当・違法など、批判も多い。

(坂本義和東京大学名誉教授／中村研一北海道大学教授／ 2007年)

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