Speculation

Originally, it meant taking advantage of an opportunity, or an extremely risky act that results in profit or loss due to a fortuitous event with no certainty of success, but in economic terms, speculation refers to trading carried out with the aim of obtaining profits from fluctuations in the market price (market price) of goods, securities, etc., based on speculation. Speculation means expecting a rise or fall in market prices. A similar corresponding term is investment. Investment differs from speculation in that its main purpose is to obtain fruits (interest, profits) as a counter-performance, but in reality it is extremely difficult to distinguish between investment and speculation. The object of speculation can be anything whose price fluctuates and is difficult to predict, and typical examples are textiles, grains, precious metals, stocks, and foreign exchange. In Japan, land is a popular object of speculation due to the country's land conditions. In speculative trading, those who expect market prices to fall are the sellers, which are called speculative shorts, bearish, or net shorts. In contrast, those who predict an upward trend in market prices become buyers, and are known as speculative buyers, bullish buyers, or long-hold buyers. Speculation is the same as general commodity trading in that it aims to make a profit from buying and selling, but unlike actual demand trading which aims to buy and sell the goods themselves, it is characterized by the fact that the profit (loss) made as a result of market price fluctuations is liquidated and the transaction is terminated. When speculation goes awry, it is called a disappointment. Speculative trading is often carried out through futures trading or futures buying and selling, so hedging is used to avoid the risk of disappointment.

[Mitsuo Morimoto]

Source: Shogakukan Encyclopedia Nipponica About Encyclopedia Nipponica Information | Legend

もともとは機会に乗じること、確実な成算のない偶然的事象によって損益を生じる極端な冒険的行為をいうが、経済用語としての投機は、思惑によって商品、有価証券等の市価（相場）の変動から生じる差益の獲得を目的として行う取引行為をいう。思惑とは、市価の値上りまたは値下りを見込むことをいう。類似の対応用語に、投資investmentがある。投資は、反対給付として果実（利子、利益）を得ることを主目的とする点で投機と異なるが、現実に投資と投機を区別することはきわめて困難である。投機の対象は、価格が変動し、しかもその見通しのたてにくいものであればなんでもよく、繊維、穀物、貴金属、株式、外国為替(かわせ)などはその典型である。日本では、国土条件から土地が有力な投機対象になる。投機取引では市価の下向きを予想する者が売り方となるが、これを思惑売り、弱気、売り越しという。これに対し、市価の上向きを予想する者は買い方となり、これを思惑買い、強気、買い持ちという。投機は、売買差益をねらう点では一般商品売買と同じであるが、物品そのものの売買を目的とする実需取引と異なり、市価変動の結果としての差益（差損）を清算して取引を終了させるところに特色がある。思惑が狂った場合を思惑はずれという。投機取引は、先物(さきもの)取引または先物売買によることが多いので、思惑はずれによる危険を避けるため、掛けつなぎ（ヘッジング）をする。

［森本三男］

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