Economic indicators - Keiki Shihyo (English spelling) business indicators

Japanese: 景気指標 - けいきしひょう（英語表記）business indicators

Among economic statistics, data that sensitively indicate economic trends or indicators created by combining such data. There are leading indicators that show signs of movement before the economy, coincident indicators that move at the same time as the economy, and lagging indicators that move after the economy. A representative indicator is the Diffusion Index (DI) created and published monthly by the Cabinet Office. The DI is modeled after the one researched and developed by the NBER (National Center for Economic Analysis), and consists of leading indicators consisting of 12 series such as the money supply (M2+CD), coincident indicators consisting of 11 series such as the index of industrial production, and lagging indicators consisting of 7 series such as the unemployment rate. Each series is calculated based on whether it has improved (positive) or deteriorated (negative) compared to three months ago, and the proportion of positive series in the index is calculated, and the state of the economy is judged based on whether it exceeds 50%. However, while the movement of the DI can determine whether the economy is expanding or contracting, it cannot measure its strength or speed. Therefore, the Composite Index (CI) was created by taking into account the degree of change in each indicator. The DI has been published since August 1960, and the data used is generally reviewed and revised after each economic cycle in order to maintain and improve its accuracy.

(Makoto Honjo, Auditor, Daiwa Institute of Research / 2007)

Source : "Chiezo" published by Asahi Shimbun Publications Co., Ltd. About Chiezo

Japanese:

経済統計の中で、景気の動きを敏感に示すデータやそれらの合成で作成された指標。景気に先駆けて動意を示す先行指標、景気と同時に動く一致指標、景気に遅れて動き出す遅行指標がある。代表的な指標は内閣府が毎月作成・公表する景気動向指数(DI:Diffusion Index)。DIはNBER(全米経済分析研究所)で研究・開発されたものにならっており、通貨供給量(M2+CD)などの12系列から成る先行指数、鉱工業生産指数など11系列から成る一致指数、完全失業率などの7系列から成る遅行指数から成り立つ。それぞれの系列は、3カ月前に比べて好転した(プラス)か悪化した(マイナス)かで算出され、指標に占めるプラス系列の割合を割り出し、それが50%を超えたかどうかで景気の良しあしを判断する。ただしDIの動きでは景気の拡張・後退は判断できるが、その強さや速さは測れない。そこで各指標の変化の度合いをも加味し、作成されたのが景気総合指数(CI:Composite Index)。なおDIは、1960年8月から公表されており、おおむね景気が一循環するごとにその採用系列の見直し・改訂がなされ、精度の維持・向上が図られている。

(本庄真大和総研監査役／ 2007年)

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