Psychological theory of exchange

A theory of foreign exchange. It was put forward by the Frenchman Aftalion after World War I. It was an attempt to explain the unstable movements of foreign exchange rates at the time due to short-term capital movements such as capital flight and speculation. The mainstream of exchange theories up to that point were the international lending and borrowing theory (balance of payments theory), which attempted to explain the fluctuations in exchange rates by quantitative factors such as trade balance, and the purchasing power parity theory, which emphasized the qualitative factor of the trend in each country's price level (purchasing power of money). Aftalion criticized these theories for being biased toward either quantitative or qualitative factors, and aimed to establish a comprehensive theory by applying the marginal utility theory to the determination of supply and demand of foreign exchange. In other words, he argued that the supply and demand of foreign exchange, which determines the exchange rate, depends on the utility that those involved in the exchange rate perceive as foreign exchange, that is, their psychological evaluation, and that exchange rates fluctuate depending on changes in this evaluation. This theory is appreciated as a theory of short-term exchange rates, but it has been pointed out that in the long term, objective factors such as trends in prices and the balance of payments influence psychology.

[Tsuchiya Rokuro]

Source: Shogakukan Encyclopedia Nipponica About Encyclopedia Nipponica Information | Legend

外国為替学説の一つ。第一次世界大戦後フランスのアフタリヨンによって唱えられた学説で、当時外国為替相場は資本逃避や投機などの短期資本移動によって不安定な動きを示していたが、そのような現象を説明しようとしたもの。それまでの為替学説の主流は、為替相場の変動要因を貿易収支などの量的要因によって説明しようとする国際貸借説（国際収支説）や、各国の物価水準（貨幣の購買力）の動向という質的要因を重視する購買力平価説であった。アフタリヨンは、これらの学説は量・質のいずれかの要因に偏っていると批判し、総合理論の樹立を目ざして、限界効用理論を外国為替の需給決定に援用した。すなわち、為替相場を左右する外国為替の需給は、為替関係者の外国為替に認める効用、つまり心理的な評価に依存するとし、この評価の変化によって為替相場は変動するとした。この学説は、短期的な為替相場の理論としては評価されるが、長期的には物価や国際収支の動向などの客観的要因が心理に影響することが指摘されている。

［土屋六郎］

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