Forecasting of occurrence - Forecasting of occurrence

This refers to predicting and estimating the occurrence of pests and diseases in advance. For the major pests of rice, fruit trees, etc., the distribution and reproduction of these pests, as well as the weather and crop growth conditions that affect them, are investigated, and the occurrence forecasting project is carried out by the national and local governments with the aim of widely disseminating the information necessary to implement appropriate control measures at the right time.

Those pests that are not distributed locally within a country and that can spread rapidly and cause great damage to agricultural crops and therefore require special measures are called designated pests, and are handled primarily by the national government, while prefectures are responsible for other pests. At the national level, the Plant Protection Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is responsible for this work, while at the prefectural level, prefectural inspectors stationed at each agricultural experiment station are responsible for prefectural inspectors, at the county level, district inspectors at pest control centers, and at the municipal level, part-time pest control officers are responsible. Actions such as issuing warnings are taken based on the results of the inspections, and these are used as reference for control plans and the arrangement of chemicals, thereby contributing to pest control.

[Murata Michio]

Source: Shogakukan Encyclopedia Nipponica About Encyclopedia Nipponica Information | Legend

病害虫発生の様相を事前に予想し推察することをいう。イネや果樹などの主要病害虫について、その分布、繁殖、ならびにそれに影響を与える気象や作物の生育状況などを調査し、適期に適切な防除を実施するのに必要な情報を広く提供することを目的として、国や地方公共団体において発生予察事業が行われている。

　国内での分布が局地的でなく、しかも急激に蔓延(まんえん)して農作物に大害を与えるために特別な対策が必要なものを指定病害虫と称して、国が中心となり、それ以外の病害虫については都道府県が主体となって行われている。国では農林水産省の植物防疫課、都道府県では各農業試験場に置かれた県予察員、郡段階では病害虫防除所の地区予察員、市町村では非常勤の病害虫防除員がこの仕事に携わっている。予察の結果によって警告を発するなどの処置がとられ、防除計画や薬剤の手配などの参考とされ、病害虫防除に貢献している。

［村田道雄］

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